Market Update - March 15, 2018

By brian.keranen@nafinc.com March 19, 2018

Market Update - March 15, 2018


 

Hello everyone and welcome back to the Mortgage Rundown. Today we are going to talk once again about what’s happening with interest rates. Recall from mid-December to mid-February, the 10yr Treasury rose from 2.35% all the way up to 2.95%. Now in the last month it’s down somewhat to around 2.85% while the market takes a little bit of a breather.

Next week on March 21st is the next FOMC meeting and the first chaired by Jerome Powell. The odds are by and large that the Fed will raise interest rates 25bps, but what’s interesting is that the market has priced in a 16% chance that the Fed raises interest rates 50bps. That is an overly optimistic view of the economy or overly pessimistic view of interest rates. A 50bps move could spook the already fragile Treasury market.

With that in mind there might be what’s called a relief rally on Treasury rates, and by extension, mortgage rates. A relief rally is when the market has priced in excessive fear and with a new Fed chair there definitely is a lot of uncertainty. If the FOMC raises rates 25bps and makes no major changes to guidance for the remainder of 2018 then we could see rates drop some on the relief that it wasn’t 50bps or no major changes to the forward guidance on rates.

If you need further evidence then take a look at the following graph. This shows the implied odds of a 50bps FOMC move at the March 21st meeting. Jerome Powell took over the Fed Chair role on February 5th and the odds were pegged at zero. As you can see since that day the odds of a 50bps move have gone up and up.

 

image: http://www.newamericanagent.com/uploads/images/MU3-15.png

Graph 1

 

With the Fed’s inflation measurement still running well below 2%, I think there is more fear than economic reality priced into rates.

In the coming weeks you should keep an eye on the following items:
1. Next week’s Fed meeting, will it be 25bps or 50bps as some have feared?
2. The run-up to the Fed meeting, will we experience some short term volatility as traders adjust their positions in front of the Fed
3. And lastly the fallout from the Fed meeting, what will their guidance be for the remainder of 2018 and 2019.


Read more at http://www.newamericanagent.com/market-update--march-15-2018#b8QJU8HAt0TEp6dG.99

Market Update - Time to Push Debt Out

By brian.keranen@nafinc.com November 16, 2017


Without a doubt debt has been very cheap for the past several years. Not to mention record low interest rates and fiscal stimulus have pushed up asset prices following the financial crisis. The stock market has pushed higher and higher as have real estate prices. But so has the debt load of the US Government, the US homeowner as well as college students around the nation. In fact the total US Household Debt has reached $13 trillion, $280 billion higher than in 2008 as the financial crisis unfolded.  We’ve been told that the loans made today are of much higher quality than loans made before the financial crisis. That’s certainly true with mortgages but what about other types of debt? Subprime auto is experiencing heavy losses nearing pre-crisis levels, student loan debt has reached $1.4 trillion with a 11.2% 90-day delinquency rate and credit card balances continued to riseMortgages have become the safe form of debt but other forms are becoming very risky. What’s the solution?

As it stands today tax reform likely won’t be passed in its current form. Certainly any type of stimulation to the economy could cure the current debt problems (and potential crisis for students). If nothing is done it’s going to be very difficult to continue to borrow our way into prosperity. And that’s where rates come into play…

If you’ve been watching the market you’ve seen short term rates via the Federal Reserve continue to rise while long term rates have remained relatively flat. See the chart below that represents the spread between the 2yr and 10yr Treasuries. As you can see over the last 8+ years the spread has nearly collapsed, meaning it’s becoming cheaper to borrow over the long term relative to the short term. This is often referred to as a flattening of the yield curve. It’s generally a result of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and a low growth and inflation outlook for the longer term. Yes there are some supply and demand effects as well. So why care?

As a mortgage banker it certainly is an encouraging sign on the likely long term path of lower interest rates. It also serves as economic encouragement for borrowers to take debt over longer periods of time. If it costs the same to borrow for thirty years versus two years, why not borrow for thirty? And given the equity that has built up over the last several years in real estate, most homeowners have a very effective method to borrow debt versus other forms, especially considering the tax advantage of a home mortgage.

The 10yr is currently at 2.32% versus the average for all of 2017 at 2.32%. The entire range for 2017 has been very tight with it trading between 2.04% and 2.62%. 2018 however could be a very different year with a new Fed Chair (yes Janet Yellen is being replaced by President Trump). We will also see how inflation plays out now that the FOMC has raised twice in 2017 and possibly a third time will come in December. The current odds of a December hike are 92% and a 50% chance of two hikes in 2018. I’m going to call 2018 as a make or break year for the Federal Reserve. They are raising rates, so let’s sit back and see how this plays out. Not to mention a flattening yield curve. If it goes negative (2yr yield is higher than the 10yr yield) then hang onto your hat.

 

image: http://www.newamericanagent.com/uploads/images/Jason_11.16.17.png

2 yr - 10 yr spread

 



Market Update - Halloween Edition

By brian.keranen@nafinc.com October 27, 2017

Hello everyone and welcome back to the Mortgage Rundown brought to you by New American Funding.  Today I’m going to review what’s happened in the markets these past 12 months and my predictions for the future.

The end of 2016 saw interest rates move higher by 70bps right after around the election of a new US President.  Republicans retained house and senate majority and looked to advance their agendas on tax reform, health care reform and infrastructure spending.  The 10yr finished 2016 at 2.45% and as you can see on your screen it reached an all-time low in July at 1.36%.

In the 1st quarter of 2017, fears of inflation have plagued the markets with many economists calling for the Federal Reserve to raise rates 4 times this year.  Core PCE has almost reached 1.9% and the unemployment rate is right around 4.7%.   The Fed’s dual mandate of below 5% unemployment and 2% inflation is about to be met.  As you can see on this graphic unemployment has been falling continually since 2009.

The 2nd quarter saw inflation falling at a dangerous pace and suddenly the market doesn’t believe the Fed can raise 4 times in 2017.  The market believes that tax reform and health care reform are still on the table.  The 10yr Treasury moved very little.  It started the quarter at 2.38% and finished the quarter at 2.31%.  The graph on your screen shows the change in inflation over the past five years.

The 3rd quarter brought more bad news on inflation with Core PCE and CPI below 2%.   There were two FOMC meetings in Q3 but the Fed made no changes to the benchmark rate during either session. Over the quarter there was rate volatility as the 10yr fell to 2.04% before climbing all the way to 2.33% by September 30th.   

The fourth quarter has begun with a more hawkish tone as there is now an 80% chance the Fed raises rates in December.  Keep a close eye out for more inflation data from October.

Looking into the future, my prediction is that tax overhaul and health care overhaul will continue to stall.  Inflation without an overhauled tax code will remain relatively low.  The Fed’s unwinding of the balance sheet will take precedence over interest rate increases and last but not least the 10yr will remain below 3%.



6 Tips For Managing Your Financial Reputation

By brian.keranen@nafinc.com September 29, 2017

6 Tips For Managing Your Financial Reputation

ipad security symbol

Consumers and Loan Officers received a wake-up call in early September with the announcement of a data breach at Equifax Inc., one of the three credit-reporting bureaus. While such lapses happen, one of this size and scope occurring at a firm some consumers pay to protect their financial information—and others have no direct relationship with—highlights the need for added vigilance. Whether it was your information that was compromised or information you use in your job, greater care and awareness about safeguarding personal and financial information may be warranted.

What to Do

Generally, people gravitate to one of two extremes. Either they accept that breaches happen and do little to protect their information or they allow their anxiety to make them overly cautious. The best response resides somewhere in between, by being preventative and regularly monitoring your information even as your lenders, banks, and credit card issuers do the same.

The following tips will help you take quick action if you suspect an attempt is being made to improperly access or use your information.

#1: Stay informed. When you hear of a breach, be proactive. Find out if you were directly impacted instead of waiting for the company to reach out to you. In the Equifax matter, you can find out if you are among the 143 million affected by visiting www.equifaxsecurity2017.com. The site will also provide you with a course of action if you were.

#2: Put your information on lockdown. Freeze your record at each of the three credit bureaus: Equifax, Experien and TransUnion. Fortunately, you need only call one of the firms to initiate a freeze at all three. You can always grant access to your credit report once you enter the mortgage process through a temporary lift of the freeze. Then, you can speak with your lender about the right time to put the lock back on.

#3: Resist the urge to click. When you receive emails looking to confirm financial or personal information, don’t. No matter how official the email looks, pick up the phone and call the institution using a number you found that’s not on the email to confirm what information is needed and why.

#4: Monitor your information. Periodically check your own credit report. You can order copies at annualcreditreport.com. Signing up for an alert service is fine, but it only notifies you to activity after the fact. That enables you to take action, but it is not preventive.

#5: File your tax return as early as possible. Thieves who gain access to Social Security numbers often attempt to file earlier than you in hope of a snagging a tax refund. While the IRS is vigilant and has a protocol to guard against this type of fraud, it helps to be defensive and file early, even if you have to amend later.

#6: Change passwords regularly and agree to two-step verification processes. Many firms will now text you an access code before allowing you to reset a password. Additionally, some financial companies want to verify your identity, even if you entered the correct user name/password combination, by texting a confirmation number to your phone. Agreeing to this extra step creates an added layer of security.

Keeping your personal information safe is the goal. However, should you have any reason to suspect it has been compromised, report the theft and contact your state’s attorney general’s office. Also, notify your financial institutions. Being proactive is your secret advantage when keeping your information and finances safe.



Heading Back to School For "the New Kid"

By brian.keranen@nafinc.com September 8, 2017

Heading Back to School For “the New Kid”

Heading Back to School For “the New Kid”

 

 

For most kids, heading back to school is an exciting time. It’s a chance to reconnect with friends, see new classrooms and experience the accomplishment of moving up a grade level. For some kids, however, a fresh school year also means starting at a new school after a move. This can be a challenging time, but here are some ways to make the transition smoother.

Tips for Families on the Move

  1. Tell them about the move as soon as possible. Like you, children need time to process the prospect of change. They also need ample opportunities to say goodbye. So, let them share the news with peers and teachers.
  2. Emphasize the positives. Talk about the upcoming move in terms of a new family adventure and keep the emphasis on gains—like a new bedroom or a larger backyard. If you harbor concerns, avoid expressing them in front of your children.
  3. Schedule time for fun. When the move will put some distance between your current home and your new one, create a family “bucket list” of places and things you all want to do before moving day.
  4. Tour the new school. Start a dialogue with the new school early and ask to arrange a tour for your child, possibly even to meet some of the staff so that on the first day there are some familiar faces. Practice your route to and from school to make it more familiar.
  5. Register for sports or other activities. While some organizations may require you be a resident before registering for their programs, signing up for what you can before you arrive, especially if your move occurs during the summer months. It’s an excellent way to introduce your child to future school peers and get them active in the community immediately after arriving.
  6. Consider getting involved with the school. Networking as a parent often leads to your kids meeting the children of other parents. In addition, volunteering for committees and clubs also shows your children that you’re invested in their experience at a new school.

After Making a Fresh Start

Even the most adaptable children might need extra attention and time to deal with change. As challenges arise, brainstorm together to help empower your child to arrive at their own solutions.

Remember that it’s important to be patient as you all settle into the next phase of your family’s life. Primarily, be confident and optimistic about your family’s fresh start—it will transfer to those around you.

6 Tips for Success as a New Real Estate Agent

By brian.keranen@nafinc.com September 8, 2017

6 Tips for Success as a New Real Estate Agent

6 Tips for Success as a New Real Estate Agent

 

Congratulations on making your move! A career in real estate comes with challenges, but just know that it will all be worth it! You have joined a field that was recently ranked second as the happiest industry. Real Estate Agents also report a high level of job satisfaction in surveys. It makes sense. As a Real Estate Agent, you deal in optimism—you help people make fresh starts. Whether they are moving in or moving out, they are starting a new phase in their lives, and that can be pretty gratifying.

Making Your Own Success

Success in real estate comes from understanding it is an entrepreneurial business. That means your success is up to you. Here are some things to keep in mind that can help you start strong and achieve the type of success you seek.

  1. Be choosy about your affiliations. When you look at companies to join, look for those that have the resources, reputation, and room to help you grow into your professional role and build your list of clients.

  2. Be realistic. While there is no limit to what you can earn as a Real Estate Agent, know that slow and steady wins the race. Ideally, you will want to have some money set aside, or a second income, as you start building your client list, bolstering your reputation, and perfecting your presentations.

  3. Be a student. Never stop learning about the industry, the markets, what motivates buyers and sellers, and the neighborhoods you serve.

  4. Be flexible. Being open to and embracing change will serve you well. From staying on top of the latest information-sharing techniques to how to make your listings as dynamic as possible to online viewers, never assume you know it all.

  5. Be professional from the start. The more professional your brochures and presentation materials are the easier it will be for potential clients to see you as the real estate expert you want to become. That also means dressing the part, having a website that positions you properly, and creating presentation materials that reflect current best practices.

  6. Be trustworthy. When you are doing your job, your clients will lead you to more clients. Those referrals come from trust. Clients need to know that you are putting their interests first and that you care about helping them get to where they want to go. Mainly, be sure to deliver on your promises.

Being a Real Estate Agent can be one of the best jobs out there. The profession offers good financial prospects and a unique kind of personal freedom. Commit to being your best, and success will follow.

Market Update - A Potential Game Changer

By brian.keranen@nafinc.com September 8, 2017

Market Update - A Potential Game Changer


Don’t look now but the 10yr yield is almost trading with a 1 handle.  With the 10yr down 37bps on the year and now trading at 2.06%, 1.99% is just in sight.  This is a psychological barrier that could spark a game changing attitude about growth and the long term prospects for rates.   The market was defiant at the start of the year with most calling for 4 increases to the benchmark rate.  As of right now two increases, the one in March and the one in June are probably all that we will see in 2017.   The hawkish Fed of 2017 is now back-peddling on rates.  Just this week Kaplan said he wants to wait and see on inflation.  Brainard said the Fed should move more slowly on rates until inflation is above 2 percent and Kashkari said the Fed may have already gone too far with rate increases.  That’s about as dovish as you will hear the Fed given their stance earlier this year.   The current odds for a Fed increase in December is 25% and depending upon whether or not Irma strikes Florida, that could drop materially.

But before claiming victory we need to get below 2%.  There is a good possibility the 10yr starts trading between 1.80 and 2.00%.   The current 2.06% level is more transitory.  It might pop back up between 2.10 and 2.40% or fall to a refi-inducing sub 2%.   Incremental escalations with North Korea and/or Hurricane Irma should do it.  A hurricane hitting south Florida will likely do significant damage and FEMA is almost out of money.  The debt ceiling debate is still to be had and tax reform is taking a backseat to immigration reform.  The dislocation in Washington is so large that action seems impossible.    Hopefully politics will play themselves out and legislation is forthcoming.  As it stands with another major hurricane on the horizon, things look bleak and that’s why the market has broken 2.10%. 

Let me repeat however that we have not broken 2.00%.  See graph below on the 10yr for the past year and a half.  

 

image: http://www.newamericanagent.com/uploads/images/Jason_1.png

10 yr treasury

 

You may be wondering about inflation in all of this.  Not to worry as it hasn’t gone anywhere but down.  See below for PCE as it has fallen below 1.5%.  So much for the Fed’s target of 2.0% and their expectation we would reach it by year end.  Time to re-adjust their forecast or perhaps Kashkari was right by saying that maybe the Fed went too far already.  I’ve been a big critic of the Fed and their excessive optimism but we have to live by what the market’s opinion is and the falling 10yr and flattening yield curve suggests the market is becoming very pessimistic.  More bad news will be a game changer.

 

image: http://www.newamericanagent.com/uploads/images/jason_2.png

Core PCE

 

Trends That Will Affect Real Estate in 2016, Part 1

By brian.keranen@nafinc.com February 23, 2016

The housing market improved immensely over the past year and is expected to continue doing better in 2016, many experts agree. However, in this new housing landscape, many trends are emerging that home buyers and real estate agents alike should keep in mind.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates have been low at the beginning of 2016, encouraging many to apply for a loan, according to the Mortgage Banker's Association [1]. Rates have been at historic lows for nearly a decade, with interest rates being kept at near zero. In December, that changed when the Federal Reserve began to slowly boost interest rates. Time Money[2] explained the first increase did not initially have a big effect on mortgage interest rates, partially because it was highly anticipated and many people in the industry were aware of its likelihood. The rate hike is expected to be the first of four, each at 25 basis points. This means the possibility that mortgage rates will be affected throughout the year is greater. Realtor.com explained that, by the end of 2016, the 30-year fixed rate mortgage is expected to be 60 base points higher than it was at the end of 2015 [3].

Millennials

Generation Y has had many real estate professionals worried for a while, as very few of them were choosing to give up renting in favor of homeownership. However, last year saw many people from this generation enter the housing market. According to Realtor.com, millennials accounted for nearly 2 million sales - more than one-third of total purchases. Time Money explained that, while millennials aren't buying homes at the same age as their parents and grandparents, they still hold aspirations of owning a home. However, many are waiting until later in life, as they are with other traditional milestones, like marriage and starting a family. This means the population of millennial homebuyers is likely to continue growing in the coming year and beyond.

Inventory

Time Money explained another reason many millennials haven't entered the housing market is that inventory is down right now, especially at lower price points. Inventory is expected to improve in the coming year, though. Inventory grows in two ways: from houses that are put up for sale, and from new construction. Both are expected to increase in the near future. According to Realtor.com, baby boomers are reaching an age of downsizing, leading many to sell their homes and purchase smaller ones. According to National Real Estate Investor, this trend will most significantly affect the New York and San Francisco metro areas, as retirees search for more affordable housing [4].

At the same time, Realtor.com reported Generation X is generally doing well financially as they enter their main working years. This gives them the opportunity to upgrade by selling their current homes and buying new ones. This will boost inventory levels in the lower price range, since many of these families will be moving to better neighborhoods. Homeowners will also look into selling their homes while rates are still low, in hopes of buying property with a good rate on a new mortgage. More homes will be built in 2016, as well. Over the past few years, many builders focused on producing high-end and expensive homes, in order to make up for low numbers of employees and rising cost of land. However, as the market continues to demand more low-priced housing options, builders will respond. Realtor.com explained new home prices began to fall toward the end of 2015, and they expect the trend will continue this year.

References

  1. Ahmad, Ali. Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey. mba.org. 01-03-16.
  2. Lipka, Mitch. Predictions for the 2016 Housing Market. time.com/money. 12-20-15.
  3. Smoke, Jonathan. The 5 Real Estate Trends That Will Shape 2016. realtor.com. 12-16-15.
  4. Carlock, Byron. 'Emerging Trends' Study: New Market Opportunities Emerge for 2016 (Part 2). nreionline.com. 01-26-16.

Interest Rates Fall and Applications Rise

By brian.keranen@nafinc.com January 21, 2016

The housing market is experiencing a boost in interested homebuyers, and this is likely due to the decreasing interest rates for home mortgages in the U.S. According to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey, interest rates for home mortgages inched lower for the week ending Sept. 24.

"Global growth concerns and lackluster inflation convinced the Fed to defer a hike in the Federal funds rate," said Sean Becketti, chief economist at Freddie Mac. "In response, Treasury yields fell about 9 basis points over the week, with some larger day-to-day swings along the way. In response, the interest rate on 30-year fixed rate mortgages dropped by 5 basis points to 3.86 percent. Mortgage rates have remained below 4 percent for 9 consecutive weeks and have remained range-bound between 3.8 and 4.1 percent since May. These low mortgage rates have supported strong home sales, and 2015 is on pace to have the highest home sales total since 2007."

Rates Decrease for U.S. Home Loans

According to the survey, the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped to 3.86 percent from the previous week's rate of 3.91 percent. The current average is also notably lower than the 4.2 percent average interest rate for a 30-year FRM seen a year ago at this time.

The average 15-year FRM also dipped to 3.08 percent. This is down 0.03 percentage points when compared on a week-over-week basis.

Both 1-year Treasury-indexed and 5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages decreased week-over-week. Their average rates settled at 2.91 percent and 2.53 percent respectively.

Lower Rates Attract More Buyers

The low rates have seemingly encouraged a higher number of interested buyers. According to The Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly survey, for the week ending Sept. 18, applications for home loans rose 13.9 percent from the previous week.

"We saw significant rate volatility last week surrounding the FOMC meeting, and rate declines toward the end of the week likely drove applications from both prospective home buyers and borrowers looking to refinance," said Mike Fratantoni, MBA's Chief Economist. "The 30-year fixed rate remained unchanged over the week even though there was substantial intra-week fluctuation, but we saw rate decreases in other loan products like the 15-year fixed, 5/1 ARM, and 30-year jumbo.

Refinancing applications represented the most significant share of total applications at 58.4 percent. This is 2.2 percentage points above the previous week's share of all home loan applications.

The adjustable-rate mortgage share of the week's applications rose to 6.9 percent.

While total applications increased for the week ending Sept. 18, the shares of loans through the Federal Housing Administration, Department of Veteran Affairs and the U.S. Department of Agriculture decreased slightly on a week-over-week basis.

While there were minimal slides in the share of some types of loans, the increasing shares of conventional loan applications may indicate a stronger economy where interested homebuyers feel more confident in their ability to afford a home.

More buyers may take steps toward homeownership and further bolster the real estate market as we continue into the fall season.