Market Update - Time to Push Debt Out

By brian.keranen@nafinc.com November 16, 2017


Without a doubt debt has been very cheap for the past several years. Not to mention record low interest rates and fiscal stimulus have pushed up asset prices following the financial crisis. The stock market has pushed higher and higher as have real estate prices. But so has the debt load of the US Government, the US homeowner as well as college students around the nation. In fact the total US Household Debt has reached $13 trillion, $280 billion higher than in 2008 as the financial crisis unfolded.  We’ve been told that the loans made today are of much higher quality than loans made before the financial crisis. That’s certainly true with mortgages but what about other types of debt? Subprime auto is experiencing heavy losses nearing pre-crisis levels, student loan debt has reached $1.4 trillion with a 11.2% 90-day delinquency rate and credit card balances continued to riseMortgages have become the safe form of debt but other forms are becoming very risky. What’s the solution?

As it stands today tax reform likely won’t be passed in its current form. Certainly any type of stimulation to the economy could cure the current debt problems (and potential crisis for students). If nothing is done it’s going to be very difficult to continue to borrow our way into prosperity. And that’s where rates come into play…

If you’ve been watching the market you’ve seen short term rates via the Federal Reserve continue to rise while long term rates have remained relatively flat. See the chart below that represents the spread between the 2yr and 10yr Treasuries. As you can see over the last 8+ years the spread has nearly collapsed, meaning it’s becoming cheaper to borrow over the long term relative to the short term. This is often referred to as a flattening of the yield curve. It’s generally a result of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and a low growth and inflation outlook for the longer term. Yes there are some supply and demand effects as well. So why care?

As a mortgage banker it certainly is an encouraging sign on the likely long term path of lower interest rates. It also serves as economic encouragement for borrowers to take debt over longer periods of time. If it costs the same to borrow for thirty years versus two years, why not borrow for thirty? And given the equity that has built up over the last several years in real estate, most homeowners have a very effective method to borrow debt versus other forms, especially considering the tax advantage of a home mortgage.

The 10yr is currently at 2.32% versus the average for all of 2017 at 2.32%. The entire range for 2017 has been very tight with it trading between 2.04% and 2.62%. 2018 however could be a very different year with a new Fed Chair (yes Janet Yellen is being replaced by President Trump). We will also see how inflation plays out now that the FOMC has raised twice in 2017 and possibly a third time will come in December. The current odds of a December hike are 92% and a 50% chance of two hikes in 2018. I’m going to call 2018 as a make or break year for the Federal Reserve. They are raising rates, so let’s sit back and see how this plays out. Not to mention a flattening yield curve. If it goes negative (2yr yield is higher than the 10yr yield) then hang onto your hat.

 

image: http://www.newamericanagent.com/uploads/images/Jason_11.16.17.png

2 yr - 10 yr spread

 



Market Update - Time To Push Debt Out

By Beny.Rabuchin@nafinc.com November 16, 2017

Without a doubt debt has been very cheap for the past several years. Not to mention record low interest rates and fiscal stimulus have pushed up asset prices following the financial crisis. The stock market has pushed higher and higher as have real estate prices. But so has the debt load of the US Government, the US homeowner as well as college students around the nation. In fact the total US Household Debt has reached $13 trillion, $280 billion higher than in 2008 as the financial crisis unfolded.  We’ve been told that the loans made today are of much higher quality than loans made before the financial crisis. That’s certainly true with mortgages but what about other types of debt? Subprime auto is experiencing heavy losses nearing pre-crisis levels, student loan debt has reached $1.4 trillion with a 11.2% 90-day delinquency rate and credit card balances continued to riseMortgages have become the safe form of debt but other forms are becoming very risky. What’s the solution?

As it stands today tax reform likely won’t be passed in its current form. Certainly any type of stimulation to the economy could cure the current debt problems (and potential crisis for students). If nothing is done it’s going to be very difficult to continue to borrow our way into prosperity. And that’s where rates come into play…

If you’ve been watching the market you’ve seen short term rates via the Federal Reserve continue to rise while long term rates have remained relatively flat. See the chart below that represents the spread between the 2yr and 10yr Treasuries. As you can see over the last 8+ years the spread has nearly collapsed, meaning it’s becoming cheaper to borrow over the long term relative to the short term. This is often referred to as a flattening of the yield curve. It’s generally a result of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and a low growth and inflation outlook for the longer term. Yes there are some supply and demand effects as well. So why care?

As a mortgage banker it certainly is an encouraging sign on the likely long term path of lower interest rates. It also serves as economic encouragement for borrowers to take debt over longer periods of time. If it costs the same to borrow for thirty years versus two years, why not borrow for thirty? And given the equity that has built up over the last several years in real estate, most homeowners have a very effective method to borrow debt versus other forms, especially considering the tax advantage of a home mortgage.

The 10yr is currently at 2.32% versus the average for all of 2017 at 2.32%. The entire range for 2017 has been very tight with it trading between 2.04% and 2.62%. 2018 however could be a very different year with a new Fed Chair (yes Janet Yellen is being replaced by President Trump). We will also see how inflation plays out now that the FOMC has raised twice in 2017 and possibly a third time will come in December. The current odds of a December hike are 92% and a 50% chance of two hikes in 2018. I’m going to call 2018 as a make or break year for the Federal Reserve. They are raising rates, so let’s sit back and see how this plays out. Not to mention a flattening yield curve. If it goes negative (2yr yield is higher than the 10yr yield) then hang onto your hat.

 

image: http://www.newamericanagent.com/uploads/images/Jason_11.16.17.png

2 yr - 10 yr spread

 



Save More by Paying Less in Fees -by-paying-less-in-fees

By kim.hoffman@nafinc.com November 15, 2017

Saving for a down payment can be less about how much you can afford to put away than about what you spend your money on. Many fees, for instance, are expenses that are easily reduced without compromising your current lifestyle. The fewer you pay, the more cash you’ll have available to add to the down payment cause.

Where to Begin

Here are some ideas for where to find fees that can be negotiated, minimized, or eliminated altogether.

Bank Fees

Ask your personal banker about ways to reduce any fees you are paying on your checking account, particularly if you have been with your bank for a while. Be sure to mention you are saving for a down payment. The more services you use and the more money you have with a bank, the better your negotiating power is regarding fee reduction. Even if you receive a concession on your fees, stay focused on managing your balances. Avoiding fees for overdrafts and bounced checks is quite savings-friendly.

Credit Card Fees

Call your issuer and request a reduction of your annual fee in view of your history of consistent and timely payments. The alternative, which your issuer knows, is to transfer your balances and relationship to a different card issuer offering lower or no-fee accounts. Similarly, if a payment does arrive late, request a reversal. Generally, issuers are accommodative; they want to avoid losing business to a competitor over an occasional late fee.

Claim Rewards

Loyalty adds up. Whether it is at a local store, restaurant group, or major airline, signing up to receive points is a way to get a little more out of each expense. When you are asked to pay a fee to join a program, however, look long and hard at your break-even point, which is where the benefits you would gain exceed the fees you will pay. Programs like Amazon Prime, which offers free shipping that often pays for itself at holiday time, are good examples of this.

Attendance Fees

Many museums and galleries offer regular free admission days. They tend to be more crowded on those days, but this can save your family enough to pay for lunch after a visit. You will also avoid the handling fee often charged for mailing tickets. Becoming a member of a museum you frequent can also save you and your family money since attendance is free and, often, a portion of the membership fee is tax deductible. 

Cutting Other Expenses

Whether it’s your cell phone, Internet, cable, alarm-monitoring company, or satellite radio subscription, monitor your bills and periodically call to ask if they can be lowered. Often, especially if you’ve been a loyal customer—and make timely payments—the company will be able to find an incentive that can be applied to your account.

With every fee or bill that you cut—or incentive you earn—make it a point to match that amount with a deposit to your down payment savings account. The amounts may be small, but you’ll be surprised by how quickly each of these financial victories can add up. 


Read more at https://www.newamericanfunding.com/blog/save-more-by-paying-less-in-fees/#Qw8fLH4BhdD7qltj.99

Tips for Hosting a Successful Turkey Day

By anna.gable@nafinc.com November 10, 2017

turkey in oven

Tips for Hosting a Successful Turkey Day

For most people, Thanksgiving is about celebrating family, giving gratitude, and, of course, enjoying food! It’s also means putting your kitchen and your cooking skills through their paces. With extra sets of helping hands around and often the preparation of more food than you may be used to cooking in a week, it’s also a day for taking extra precautions to ensure your home and everyone in it remain safe.  

On Trend or in the Oven?

Deep-frying is an increasingly popular way to cook the Thanksgiving turkey, particularly because it frees up the oven. Also, those who prefer this method say it results in a superior bird. When trying this approach, it’s best to set up outside on a flat surface and well away from your house, decks, and awnings. Once you’ve finished, be sure to leave the cooking oil in a place where it can cool down to a safe level before disposing of it.

You Have to Be This High to Enter

Most turkeys take a few hours to cook, which means a lot of sustained heat is emitted from the oven, roaster, fryer, or grill. It’s advisable to keep the area clear of smaller family members, four-legged or otherwise. For younger kids, consider setting up an area of your house filled with enough distracting activities and snacks that they’ll be busy until dinnertime. Older kids can help with side dish preparation or may even be willing to run interference with younger guests, if you make it worth their while. For pets that might be tempted to come in for a closer look, consider setting them up in the backyard or distract them with long-lasting chew treats. Also, consider using gates to keep them out of the cooking area, if your floor plan allows for it. 

What You Wear Matters

Since Thanksgiving generally involves a full day of cooking, most people want to be as comfortable as possible in terms of what they wear. However, loose-fitting clothing may pose a problem while cooking. So, you may want to trade in any long sleeves for a shorter model and encourage your helpers to secure any hanging material as well. With all the basting and lifting of large, heavy pans, wearing both an apron and shoes can help prevent direct contact with any hot liquids that may be inadvertently splashed.

Clear a Path

Between the back and forth of preparing the Thanksgiving meal and all the guests coming for dinner, your house will see a lot of traffic. In the kitchen, try to limit the number of people helping at any one time. This prevents accidental jostling and spills. It’s also a good idea to have a designated “clear space” where you can set something hot until you transfer it to a plate. That way, no one is stranded with a hot dish in their hands longer than they have to be. When removing the turkey from the oven, make sure the turkey pan is stable and the person doing the lifting has a good grip and enough room to maneuver.

Finally, make sure the path from the kitchen to the dining room is clear. You’ll most likely be making a number of trips from one room to the other while carrying hot food.

Enjoying Thanksgiving dinner at home with family and friends is something many people look forward to all year. It may even have influenced the type of home you chose. Make sure the holiday is thoroughly enjoyed and remembered for the right reasons. 

Let’s Talk Turkey!

Here are some tips to keep in mind when preparing the main dish:

  • Thaw your turkey completely in the fridge before cooking.

  • Be sure to remove the neck and giblets from inside the turkey.

  • Spring for a good meat thermometer, or two, rather than relying on the pop-up.

  • When cooking stuffing inside a turkey, make sure it reaches 165° F in the center.

  • Allow turkey to rest 15–20 minutes before carving.

  • Have Butterball’s hotline number handy: 1-800-288-8372 (BUTTERBALL).

Managing Your Financial Reputation

By Tammie.VanDeusen@nafinc.com November 9, 2017
Consumers and Loan Officers received a wake-up call in early September with the announcement of a data breach at Equifax Inc., one of the three credit-reporting bureaus. While such lapses happen, one of this size and scope occurring at a firm some consumers pay to protect their financial information—and others have no direct relationship with—highlights the need for added vigilance. Whether it was your information that was compromised or information you use in your job, greater care and awareness about safeguarding personal and financial information may be warranted.
What to Do
Generally, people gravitate to one of two extremes. Either they accept that breaches happen and do little to protect their information or they allow their anxiety to make them overly cautious. The best response resides somewhere in between, by being preventative and regularly monitoring your information even as your lenders, banks, and credit card issuers do the same.
The following tips will help you take quick action if you suspect an attempt is being made to improperly access or use your information.
#1: Stay informed. When you hear of a breach, be proactive. Find out if you were directly impacted instead of waiting for the company to reach out to you. In the Equifax matter, you can find out if you are among the 143 million affected by visiting www.equifaxsecurity2017.com. The site will also provide you with a course of action if you were.
#2: Put your information on lockdown. Freeze your record at each of the three credit bureaus: Equifax, Experien and TransUnion. Fortunately, you need only call one of the firms to initiate a freeze at all three. You can always grant access to your credit report once you enter the mortgage process through a temporary lift of the freeze. Then, you can speak with your lender about the right time to put the lock back on.
#3: Resist the urge to click. When you receive emails looking to confirm financial or personal information, don’t. No matter how official the email looks, pick up the phone and call the institution using a number you found that’s not on the email to confirm what information is needed and why.
#4: Monitor your information. Periodically check your own credit report. You can order copies at annualcreditreport.com. Signing up for an alert service is fine, but it only notifies you to activity after the fact. That enables you to take action, but it is not preventive.
#5: File your tax return as early as possible. Thieves who gain access to Social Security numbers often attempt to file earlier than you in hope of a snagging a tax refund. While the IRS is vigilant and has a protocol to guard against this type of fraud, it helps to be defensive and file early, even if you have to amend later.
#6: Change passwords regularly and agree to two-step verification processes. Many firms will now text you an access code before allowing you to reset a password. Additionally, some financial companies want to verify your identity, even if you entered the correct user name/password combination, by texting a confirmation number to your phone. Agreeing to this extra step creates an added layer of security.
Keeping your personal information safe is the goal. However, should you have any reason to suspect it has been compromised, report the theft and contact your state’s attorney general’s office. Also, notify your financial institutions. Being proactive is your secret advantage when keeping your information and finances safe.

New American Funding Launches Training Program for Mortgage Professionals Read more

By jessica.gonzalez@nafinc.com November 6, 2017
Builds State-of-the-Art Facility to Equip New Generation of Industry Leaders

New American Funding, a leader in the mortgage industry, announced today the launch of its new STEP program, a corporate training curriculum that’s designed to prepare people for a career in mortgage banking. STEP, which is Specialized Training Empowering People, is a nationwide program that was developed by the company to equip people for working in every aspect of the industry.

STEP provides live weekly online and onsite classes that cover a spectrum of topics ranging from the fundamentals of mortgage banking to compliance education to the specifics about loan products. It’s designed to train people who have no background in the industry to work in a diverse scope of roles including Loan Originator, Underwriter, and Processor.

“It was vital that New American Funding develop STEP because it addresses a long-term need we’ve had within our industry for new talent. We have a younger generation looking to enter mortgage banking; yet, there hasn’t been any comprehensive training available to prepare them for a career in this field.” said CEO Rick Arvielo. “We see STEP as the right thing to do for our community, our industry, and our next generation of mortgage leaders.”

One component of STEP includes Launch Lab, which features a 25,000 square-foot, state-of-the-art training facility that’s opening in Orange County, CA. Launch Lab is a program that’s designed to accommodate approximately 200 people per session. It will provide on-the-job training for both industry newcomers and experienced mortgage professionals who want to transition into a different career role.  

“This is a great way to not only create jobs for communities across America but to create jobs in an aging industry,” said Arvielo. “We believe it will be a win, win for everyone.”

The goal is to expand STEP to include an on-demand, e-learning curriculum that employees take at-will.


Read more at https://www.newamericanfunding.com/blog/new-american-funding-launches-training-program-for-mortgage-professionals/#D5b1qqlFFz83TpI2.99

A Homeowner's Year Round Guide - Infographic

By Karen.Konesky@nafinc.com November 2, 2017

A Homeowner's Year Round Guide Infographic

Down Payment Download: How Much Do You Really Need?

By Ryan.Whitmore@nafinc.com November 2, 2017

There is a well-rooted perception that to buy a home, especially your first one, you should keep saving and renting until you can make a 20 percent down payment. Reality is far different and knowing your options may get you through the door to homeownership that much sooner.

Doing More with Less

Black Knight Financial Services reports that 1.5 million borrowers became homeowners in the 12 months ended June 2017 with down payments of less than 10 percent. Most of these loans were conventional, fixed-rate offerings made through the Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and FHA loan programs. Because these agencies are now able to accommodate this type of loan, close to 40 percent of all new mortgages are being made with low down payments.

Mortgage ProgramsMinimum Down Payment
Conventional Loans 3–5 percent
Conventional Jumbo 10 percent
FHA Loans 3.5 percent
VA Loans 0 percent
USDA Loans 0 percent

Down payment requirements may differ for condo purchases or new construction.

Weighing the Trade-Off

While it’s possible to get into a home sooner with less money up front, mortgages made with low down payments do come with the added expense of mortgage insurance premiums until that 20 percent equity level is achieved. They also typically result in the borrower paying more interest over the life of the loan, which could make the ultimate cost of the home higher.

However, proceeding with a low down payment might still save you money over the long run. You will no longer be paying rent and may realize tax savings after deductions for your higher interest expense and property taxes. Potential gains in the home’s value can also make the earlier purchase and expenses worthwhile over time. So, it is important to consider how these varying factors may affect your near-term budget as well as the potential for a long-term gain in your net worth. In many cases, your Loan Officer or financial advisor can help you weigh the alternatives.

Next Steps

Going through the preapproval process with a Loan Officer is an effective way to gauge how much home you can buy—and afford—given different down payment scenarios. It will also help you engage the attention of a Real Estate Agent. Having a preapproval letter will ensure they view you as a serious buyer instead of an aspirational browser still building your savings.

When it comes to down payments, in today’s market it isn’t as much about the amount you put down as it is how much you can comfortably afford to owe. Once you know that, homeownership is in reach.

DIY or Go Pro?

By Dylan.Tortarolo@nafinc.com November 2, 2017

The following infographic will help you decide whether to do-it-yourself (DIY) or go seek professional help when things around your household need to be fixed or updated:

DIY or Go Pro?

 

Starting Small: How to Invest Even When Money Is Tight

By Jonny.Moore@nafinc.com November 2, 2017

You may already be investing in your education, your career, and perhaps even in a home. So, how do you start putting away enough to meet your long-term plans? Fortunately, several options can help you start small— with minimal fees— even as you continue working toward your more immediate life goals.

Where to Begin

When it comes to saving, no amount is too small. Diverting just $20 from your food or transportation bill each week toward investing can help build a nest egg over the course of 20 years valued at nearly $30,000. As you start to benefit from your education and career investments, you may be able to contribute more to that weekly program, even as you start to participate in an employer-provided retirement plan.

While preparing for the future using traditional savings accounts helps, investing through stocks, bonds, mutual funds, or ETFs is regarded as a better alternative for money that you are saving for the distant future. The annual returns can be expected to be substantially higher and do a better job of keeping up with the rate of inflation.

Building a Portfolio

There is a misperception among new savers that to invest you should have large balances. Currently, several large, well-known financial firms have no-minimum, low-fee, online-only discount brokerage accounts. These include Ally Invest, TD Ameritrade, Charles Schwab, and MerrillEDGE. All currently have no minimum account opening requirements and charge between $4.95 and $6.95 for online trades. Also, many mutual fund companies will lower their account opening minimums if you agree to make deposits to the fund each month. However, other services may incur fees at many of these larger, more established companies.

Perhaps more accessible for beginners are app-based investment options like Acorns and Stash. Both mobile-friendly options allow you to nickel and dime your way to a well-diversified portfolio. Acorns works with your debit and credit cards to round up every purchase you make. The spare change is automatically diverted into a managed ETF portfolio.

Meanwhile, Stash provides entry to investing for as little as $5. Both firms are designed to help you learn how to invest and to get you started. They essentially create portfolios with training wheels. As with bicycle riding, you will probably want to graduate from being an investor-in-training at some point, and use a different program once you get the hang of it. Until then, they are both good starting points.

Other alternatives for investors include Robinhood, a new entry with no costs at all, and Motif. Motif allows its clients to create sophisticated, fully diversified, and customized portfolios—like a mutual fund—but with individual shares they select. It, too, is highly cost efficient.

Robo-advisors, such as Wealthfront and WiseBanyan, are app-based firms that do all the work for you, making your investment choices based on your circumstances and goals. While your balances are low, they assess no fees. Once you can afford to pay for advice and management, fees, which are still low by industry standards, are applied.

Given recent changes in the investment industry and the emergence of app-based alternatives, getting started as an investor is very much within the reach of most individuals. It just takes a willingness to consistently add what you can to your account and allow time for your portfolio to build momentum as its balance grows.