Should You Look at Your Home as an Investment?

By JoAnne.Lamorey@nafinc.com November 28, 2017

red house and coins

 In recent decades, owning real estate has provided millions of people with an opportunity to create and retain personal wealth. For most, their home is their largest asset. That’s why considering homeownership as part of a long-term financial plan—and treating a home as an investment—may make sense.

Here are some key considerations to factor into buying a home and seeing it as an investment.

Rate of Return

In recent years, borrowers have been able to secure home loans at relatively low interest rates, making homeownership more affordable. As the price of their home has risen, many have experienced a positive rate of return.

Mandatory Savings

Since most homes are bought with borrowed money—a mortgage—they represent an automatic savings program of sorts. Each monthly payment adds to the home’s equity- the difference between the mortgage balance owed and what the home is worth. Generally more interest is paid at the beginning of the loan and later, more of each payment goes toward the principal. That means, without any increase in out of pocket expense, more is being contributed to the equity/savings as time goes on.

Ownership Equity vs. Rental Expense

For renters, housing is just another monthly expense. There are no savings unless the rent payment is less than a mortgage payment would be —and you put the difference away. While renting may be appropriate early in your adult life, once you settle into a place, owning typically offers the better long-term financial benefits. Housing expenses are usually predictable with a mortgage, as with a Fixed Rate loan, whereas living in rental property is unstable due to unexpected increases. With a mortgage, you are in control of your expenses – not your landlord.

Tax Advantages

Homeowners with mortgages are typically able to deduct all or most of the interest portion of their monthly payments at tax time. This can trim thousands of dollars from their tax bills over the life of the loan. Depending on local tax laws, any property tax that is paid may also be deductible, while certain home improvements may earn tax credits, further reducing tax bills.

Also, under current tax laws, a home’s appreciation in value is tax deferred. For many homeowners, even after they sell, that gain may be realized without tax consequences.*

Wealth Building

Homeownership has historically provided an accessible steppingstone to personal wealth. Borrowers at various income levels can purchase a sensible home for their situation and generally, over time, the home’s value appreciates and provides the homeowner with equity. As the years go by, this equity builds and can become a substantial portion of a homeowner’s net worth. 

Invest in You

Homeownership provides you more control over your space, allowing for more creative expression and personalization over the place where you reside. Compared to renters, homeowners are happier, healthier and have better self-esteem.

Invest in Your Family

When you buy a home, you have more control of your family’s environment. Not just inside the home, but you can research to find the best schools in the safest areas and then buy in that area. The most desirable areas frequently offer fewer rental living options.

Invest in the Community

Buying a home generally leads to pride in homeownership, allowing a buyer to settle into a community and establish long-term ties in their area. Stronger ties typically mean more interest in the community, more civic involvement and better neighborhoods overall.

With the multitude of benefits to owning a home, it makes sense to look at it and treat it as both a financial and personal well-being investment.

* Borrowers should always discuss any potential deductions with a licensed a tax professional.


Read more at https://www.newamericanfunding.com/blog/should-you-look-at-your-home-as-an-investment/#7rB5lHIWBhFPVpMG.99

Tips for Hosting a Successful Thanksgiving Turkey Fest

By Tammie.VanDeusen@nafinc.com November 22, 2017

Tips for Hosting a Successful Thanksgiving Turkey Fest
For most people, Thanksgiving is about celebrating family, giving gratitude, and, of course, enjoying food! It’s also means putting your kitchen and your cooking skills through their paces. With extra sets of helping hands around and often the preparation of more food than you may be used to cooking in a week, it’s also a day for taking extra precautions to ensure your home and everyone in it remain safe.
On Trend or in the Oven?
Deep-frying is an increasingly popular way to cook the Thanksgiving turkey, particularly because it frees up the oven. Also, those who prefer this method say it results in a superior bird. When trying this approach, it’s best to set up outside on a flat surface and well away from your house, decks, and awnings. Once you’ve finished, be sure to leave the cooking oil in a place where it can cool down to a safe level before disposing of it.

You Have to Be This High to Enter
Most turkeys take a few hours to cook, which means a lot of sustained heat is emitted from the oven, roaster, fryer, or grill. It’s advisable to keep the area clear of smaller family members, four-legged or otherwise. For younger kids, consider setting up an area of your house filled with enough distracting activities and snacks that they’ll be busy until dinnertime. Older kids can help with side dish preparation or may even be willing to run interference with younger guests, if you make it worth their while. For pets that might be tempted to come in for a closer look, consider setting them up in the backyard or distract them with long-lasting chew treats. Also, consider using gates to keep them out of the cooking area, if your floor plan allows for it.

What You Wear Matters
Since Thanksgiving generally involves a full day of cooking, most people want to be as comfortable as possible in terms of what they wear. However, loose-fitting clothing may pose a problem while cooking. So, you may want to trade in any long sleeves for a shorter model and encourage your helpers to secure any hanging material as well. With all the basting and lifting of large, heavy pans, wearing both an apron and shoes can help prevent direct contact with any hot liquids that may be inadvertently splashed.

Clear a Path
Between the back and forth of preparing the Thanksgiving meal and all the guests coming for dinner, your house will see a lot of traffic. In the kitchen, try to limit the number of people helping at any one time. This prevents accidental jostling and spills. It’s also a good idea to have a designated “clear space” where you can set something hot until you transfer it to a plate. That way, no one is stranded with a hot dish in their hands longer than they have to be. When removing the turkey from the oven, make sure the turkey pan is stable and the person doing the lifting has a good grip and enough room to maneuver.
Finally, make sure the path from the kitchen to the dining room is clear. You’ll most likely be making a number of trips from one room to the other while carrying hot food.
Enjoying Thanksgiving dinner at home with family and friends is something many people look forward to all year. It may even have influenced the type of home you chose. Make sure the holiday is thoroughly enjoyed and remembered for the right reasons.

Let’s Talk Turkey!
Here are some tips to keep in mind when preparing the main dish:
  • Thaw your turkey completely in the fridge before cooking.
  • Be sure to remove the neck and giblets from inside the turkey.
  • Spring for a good meat thermometer, or two, rather than relying on the pop-up.
  • When cooking stuffing inside a turkey, make sure it reaches 165° F in the center.
  • Allow turkey to rest 15–20 minutes before carving.
  • Have Butterball’s hotline number handy: 1-800-288-8372 (BUTTERBALL).

Save More by Paying Less in Fees

By JoAnne.Lamorey@nafinc.com November 17, 2017

money in hand

Saving for a down payment can be less about how much you can afford to put away than about what you spend your money on. Many fees, for instance, are expenses that are easily reduced without compromising your current lifestyle. The fewer you pay, the more cash you’ll have available to add to the down payment cause.

Where to Begin

Here are some ideas for where to find fees that can be negotiated, minimized, or eliminated altogether.

Bank Fees

Ask your personal banker about ways to reduce any fees you are paying on your checking account, particularly if you have been with your bank for a while. Be sure to mention you are saving for a down payment. The more services you use and the more money you have with a bank, the better your negotiating power is regarding fee reduction. Even if you receive a concession on your fees, stay focused on managing your balances. Avoiding fees for overdrafts and bounced checks is quite savings-friendly.

Credit Card Fees

Call your issuer and request a reduction of your annual fee in view of your history of consistent and timely payments. The alternative, which your issuer knows, is to transfer your balances and relationship to a different card issuer offering lower or no-fee accounts. Similarly, if a payment does arrive late, request a reversal. Generally, issuers are accommodative; they want to avoid losing business to a competitor over an occasional late fee.

Claim Rewards

Loyalty adds up. Whether it is at a local store, restaurant group, or major airline, signing up to receive points is a way to get a little more out of each expense. When you are asked to pay a fee to join a program, however, look long and hard at your break-even point, which is where the benefits you would gain exceed the fees you will pay. Programs like Amazon Prime, which offers free shipping that often pays for itself at holiday time, are good examples of this.

Attendance Fees

Many museums and galleries offer regular free admission days. They tend to be more crowded on those days, but this can save your family enough to pay for lunch after a visit. You will also avoid the handling fee often charged for mailing tickets. Becoming a member of a museum you frequent can also save you and your family money since attendance is free and, often, a portion of the membership fee is tax deductible. 

Cutting Other Expenses

Whether it’s your cell phone, Internet, cable, alarm-monitoring company, or satellite radio subscription, monitor your bills and periodically call to ask if they can be lowered. Often, especially if you’ve been a loyal customer—and make timely payments—the company will be able to find an incentive that can be applied to your account.

With every fee or bill that you cut—or incentive you earn—make it a point to match that amount with a deposit to your down payment savings account. The amounts may be small, but you’ll be surprised by how quickly each of these financial victories can add up. 


Read more at https://www.newamericanfunding.com/blog/save-more-by-paying-less-in-fees/#tzZO2cvh1yssrt6V.99

New American Funding Launches Training Program for Mortgage Professionals

By JoAnne.Lamorey@nafinc.com November 16, 2017
launch lab
Builds State-of-the-Art Facility to Equip New Generation of Industry Leaders

New American Funding, a leader in the mortgage industry, announced today the launch of its new STEP program, a corporate training curriculum that’s designed to prepare people for a career in mortgage banking. STEP, which is Specialized Training Empowering People, is a nationwide program that was developed by the company to equip people for working in every aspect of the industry.

STEP provides live weekly online and onsite classes that cover a spectrum of topics ranging from the fundamentals of mortgage banking to compliance education to the specifics about loan products. It’s designed to train people who have no background in the industry to work in a diverse scope of roles including Loan Originator, Underwriter, and Processor.

“It was vital that New American Funding develop STEP because it addresses a long-term need we’ve had within our industry for new talent. We have a younger generation looking to enter mortgage banking; yet, there hasn’t been any comprehensive training available to prepare them for a career in this field.” said CEO Rick Arvielo. “We see STEP as the right thing to do for our community, our industry, and our next generation of mortgage leaders.”

One component of STEP includes Launch Lab, which features a 25,000 square-foot, state-of-the-art training facility that’s opening in Orange County, CA. Launch Lab is a program that’s designed to accommodate approximately 200 people per session. It will provide on-the-job training for both industry newcomers and experienced mortgage professionals who want to transition into a different career role.  

 

“This is a great way to not only create jobs for communities across America but to create jobs in an aging industry,” said Arvielo. “We believe it will be a win, win for everyone.”

The goal is to expand STEP to include an on-demand, e-learning curriculum that employees take at-will.


Read more at https://www.newamericanfunding.com/blog/new-american-funding-launches-training-program-for-mortgage-professionals/#Kk1gh8Gp4sTWMpEr.99

Market Update - Time to Push Debt Out

By Henry.Durkee@nafinc.com November 16, 2017

Without a doubt debt has been very cheap for the past several years. Not to mention record low interest rates and fiscal stimulus have pushed up asset prices following the financial crisis. The stock market has pushed higher and higher as have real estate prices. But so has the debt load of the US Government, the US homeowner as well as college students around the nation. In fact the total US Household Debt has reached $13 trillion, $280 billion higher than in 2008 as the financial crisis unfolded.  We’ve been told that the loans made today are of much higher quality than loans made before the financial crisis. That’s certainly true with mortgages but what about other types of debt? Subprime auto is experiencing heavy losses nearing pre-crisis levels, student loan debt has reached $1.4 trillion with a 11.2% 90-day delinquency rate and credit card balances continued to riseMortgages have become the safe form of debt but other forms are becoming very risky. What’s the solution?

As it stands today tax reform likely won’t be passed in its current form. Certainly any type of stimulation to the economy could cure the current debt problems (and potential crisis for students). If nothing is done it’s going to be very difficult to continue to borrow our way into prosperity. And that’s where rates come into play…

If you’ve been watching the market you’ve seen short term rates via the Federal Reserve continue to rise while long term rates have remained relatively flat. See the chart below that represents the spread between the 2yr and 10yr Treasuries. As you can see over the last 8+ years the spread has nearly collapsed, meaning it’s becoming cheaper to borrow over the long term relative to the short term. This is often referred to as a flattening of the yield curve. It’s generally a result of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and a low growth and inflation outlook for the longer term. Yes there are some supply and demand effects as well. So why care?

As a mortgage banker it certainly is an encouraging sign on the likely long term path of lower interest rates. It also serves as economic encouragement for borrowers to take debt over longer periods of time. If it costs the same to borrow for thirty years versus two years, why not borrow for thirty? And given the equity that has built up over the last several years in real estate, most homeowners have a very effective method to borrow debt versus other forms, especially considering the tax advantage of a home mortgage.

The 10yr is currently at 2.32% versus the average for all of 2017 at 2.32%. The entire range for 2017 has been very tight with it trading between 2.04% and 2.62%. 2018 however could be a very different year with a new Fed Chair (yes Janet Yellen is being replaced by President Trump). We will also see how inflation plays out now that the FOMC has raised twice in 2017 and possibly a third time will come in December. The current odds of a December hike are 92% and a 50% chance of two hikes in 2018. I’m going to call 2018 as a make or break year for the Federal Reserve. They are raising rates, so let’s sit back and see how this plays out. Not to mention a flattening yield curve. If it goes negative (2yr yield is higher than the 10yr yield) then hang onto your hat.

 

image: http://www.newamericanagent.com/uploads/images/Jason_11.16.17.png

2 yr - 10 yr spread

 



Market Update - Time to Push Debt Out

By Nate.Kuchera@nafinc.com November 16, 2017

Without a doubt debt has been very cheap for the past several years. Not to mention record low interest rates and fiscal stimulus have pushed up asset prices following the financial crisis. The stock market has pushed higher and higher as have real estate prices. But so has the debt load of the US Government, the US homeowner as well as college students around the nation. In fact the total US Household Debt has reached $13 trillion, $280 billion higher than in 2008 as the financial crisis unfolded.  We’ve been told that the loans made today are of much higher quality than loans made before the financial crisis. That’s certainly true with mortgages but what about other types of debt? Subprime auto is experiencing heavy losses nearing pre-crisis levels, student loan debt has reached $1.4 trillion with a 11.2% 90-day delinquency rate and credit card balances continued to riseMortgages have become the safe form of debt but other forms are becoming very risky. What’s the solution?

As it stands today tax reform likely won’t be passed in its current form. Certainly any type of stimulation to the economy could cure the current debt problems (and potential crisis for students). If nothing is done it’s going to be very difficult to continue to borrow our way into prosperity. And that’s where rates come into play…

If you’ve been watching the market you’ve seen short term rates via the Federal Reserve continue to rise while long term rates have remained relatively flat. See the chart below that represents the spread between the 2yr and 10yr Treasuries. As you can see over the last 8+ years the spread has nearly collapsed, meaning it’s becoming cheaper to borrow over the long term relative to the short term. This is often referred to as a flattening of the yield curve. It’s generally a result of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and a low growth and inflation outlook for the longer term. Yes there are some supply and demand effects as well. So why care?

As a mortgage banker it certainly is an encouraging sign on the likely long term path of lower interest rates. It also serves as economic encouragement for borrowers to take debt over longer periods of time. If it costs the same to borrow for thirty years versus two years, why not borrow for thirty? And given the equity that has built up over the last several years in real estate, most homeowners have a very effective method to borrow debt versus other forms, especially considering the tax advantage of a home mortgage.

The 10yr is currently at 2.32% versus the average for all of 2017 at 2.32%. The entire range for 2017 has been very tight with it trading between 2.04% and 2.62%. 2018 however could be a very different year with a new Fed Chair (yes Janet Yellen is being replaced by President Trump). We will also see how inflation plays out now that the FOMC has raised twice in 2017 and possibly a third time will come in December. The current odds of a December hike are 92% and a 50% chance of two hikes in 2018. I’m going to call 2018 as a make or break year for the Federal Reserve. They are raising rates, so let’s sit back and see how this plays out. Not to mention a flattening yield curve. If it goes negative (2yr yield is higher than the 10yr yield) then hang onto your hat.

 

image: http://www.newamericanagent.com/uploads/images/Jason_11.16.17.png

2 yr - 10 yr spread

 

Market Update - Time to Push Debt Out

By Alfredo.Arteaga@nafinc.com November 16, 2017

Without a doubt debt has been very cheap for the past several years. Not to mention record low interest rates and fiscal stimulus have pushed up asset prices following the financial crisis. The stock market has pushed higher and higher as have real estate prices. But so has the debt load of the US Government, the US homeowner as well as college students around the nation. In fact the total US Household Debt has reached $13 trillion, $280 billion higher than in 2008 as the financial crisis unfolded.  We’ve been told that the loans made today are of much higher quality than loans made before the financial crisis. That’s certainly true with mortgages but what about other types of debt? Subprime auto is experiencing heavy losses nearing pre-crisis levels, student loan debt has reached $1.4 trillion with a 11.2% 90-day delinquency rate and credit card balances continued to riseMortgages have become the safe form of debt but other forms are becoming very risky. What’s the solution?

As it stands today tax reform likely won’t be passed in its current form. Certainly any type of stimulation to the economy could cure the current debt problems (and potential crisis for students). If nothing is done it’s going to be very difficult to continue to borrow our way into prosperity. And that’s where rates come into play…

If you’ve been watching the market you’ve seen short term rates via the Federal Reserve continue to rise while long term rates have remained relatively flat. See the chart below that represents the spread between the 2yr and 10yr Treasuries. As you can see over the last 8+ years the spread has nearly collapsed, meaning it’s becoming cheaper to borrow over the long term relative to the short term. This is often referred to as a flattening of the yield curve. It’s generally a result of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and a low growth and inflation outlook for the longer term. Yes there are some supply and demand effects as well. So why care?

As a mortgage banker it certainly is an encouraging sign on the likely long term path of lower interest rates. It also serves as economic encouragement for borrowers to take debt over longer periods of time. If it costs the same to borrow for thirty years versus two years, why not borrow for thirty? And given the equity that has built up over the last several years in real estate, most homeowners have a very effective method to borrow debt versus other forms, especially considering the tax advantage of a home mortgage.

The 10yr is currently at 2.32% versus the average for all of 2017 at 2.32%. The entire range for 2017 has been very tight with it trading between 2.04% and 2.62%. 2018 however could be a very different year with a new Fed Chair (yes Janet Yellen is being replaced by President Trump). We will also see how inflation plays out now that the FOMC has raised twice in 2017 and possibly a third time will come in December. The current odds of a December hike are 92% and a 50% chance of two hikes in 2018. I’m going to call 2018 as a make or break year for the Federal Reserve. They are raising rates, so let’s sit back and see how this plays out. Not to mention a flattening yield curve. If it goes negative (2yr yield is higher than the 10yr yield) then hang onto your hat.

 

image: http://www.newamericanagent.com/uploads/images/Jason_11.16.17.png

2 yr - 10 yr spread

 



Market Update - Time to Push Debt Out

By Alfredo.Arteaga@nafinc.com November 16, 2017

Without a doubt debt has been very cheap for the past several years. Not to mention record low interest rates and fiscal stimulus have pushed up asset prices following the financial crisis. The stock market has pushed higher and higher as have real estate prices. But so has the debt load of the US Government, the US homeowner as well as college students around the nation. In fact the total US Household Debt has reached $13 trillion, $280 billion higher than in 2008 as the financial crisis unfolded.  We’ve been told that the loans made today are of much higher quality than loans made before the financial crisis. That’s certainly true with mortgages but what about other types of debt? Subprime auto is experiencing heavy losses nearing pre-crisis levels, student loan debt has reached $1.4 trillion with a 11.2% 90-day delinquency rate and credit card balances continued to riseMortgages have become the safe form of debt but other forms are becoming very risky. What’s the solution?

As it stands today tax reform likely won’t be passed in its current form. Certainly any type of stimulation to the economy could cure the current debt problems (and potential crisis for students). If nothing is done it’s going to be very difficult to continue to borrow our way into prosperity. And that’s where rates come into play…

If you’ve been watching the market you’ve seen short term rates via the Federal Reserve continue to rise while long term rates have remained relatively flat. See the chart below that represents the spread between the 2yr and 10yr Treasuries. As you can see over the last 8+ years the spread has nearly collapsed, meaning it’s becoming cheaper to borrow over the long term relative to the short term. This is often referred to as a flattening of the yield curve. It’s generally a result of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and a low growth and inflation outlook for the longer term. Yes there are some supply and demand effects as well. So why care?

As a mortgage banker it certainly is an encouraging sign on the likely long term path of lower interest rates. It also serves as economic encouragement for borrowers to take debt over longer periods of time. If it costs the same to borrow for thirty years versus two years, why not borrow for thirty? And given the equity that has built up over the last several years in real estate, most homeowners have a very effective method to borrow debt versus other forms, especially considering the tax advantage of a home mortgage.

The 10yr is currently at 2.32% versus the average for all of 2017 at 2.32%. The entire range for 2017 has been very tight with it trading between 2.04% and 2.62%. 2018 however could be a very different year with a new Fed Chair (yes Janet Yellen is being replaced by President Trump). We will also see how inflation plays out now that the FOMC has raised twice in 2017 and possibly a third time will come in December. The current odds of a December hike are 92% and a 50% chance of two hikes in 2018. I’m going to call 2018 as a make or break year for the Federal Reserve. They are raising rates, so let’s sit back and see how this plays out. Not to mention a flattening yield curve. If it goes negative (2yr yield is higher than the 10yr yield) then hang onto your hat.

 

image: http://www.newamericanagent.com/uploads/images/Jason_11.16.17.png

2 yr - 10 yr spread

 



Market Update - Time to Push Debt Out

By charity.bohuslavizki@nafinc.com November 16, 2017

Without a doubt debt has been very cheap for the past several years. Not to mention record low interest rates and fiscal stimulus have pushed up asset prices following the financial crisis. The stock market has pushed higher and higher as have real estate prices. But so has the debt load of the US Government, the US homeowner as well as college students around the nation. In fact the total US Household Debt has reached $13 trillion, $280 billion higher than in 2008 as the financial crisis unfolded.  We’ve been told that the loans made today are of much higher quality than loans made before the financial crisis. That’s certainly true with mortgages but what about other types of debt? Subprime auto is experiencing heavy losses nearing pre-crisis levels, student loan debt has reached $1.4 trillion with a 11.2% 90-day delinquency rate and credit card balances continued to riseMortgages have become the safe form of debt but other forms are becoming very risky. What’s the solution?

As it stands today tax reform likely won’t be passed in its current form. Certainly any type of stimulation to the economy could cure the current debt problems (and potential crisis for students). If nothing is done it’s going to be very difficult to continue to borrow our way into prosperity. And that’s where rates come into play…

If you’ve been watching the market you’ve seen short term rates via the Federal Reserve continue to rise while long term rates have remained relatively flat. See the chart below that represents the spread between the 2yr and 10yr Treasuries. As you can see over the last 8+ years the spread has nearly collapsed, meaning it’s becoming cheaper to borrow over the long term relative to the short term. This is often referred to as a flattening of the yield curve. It’s generally a result of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and a low growth and inflation outlook for the longer term. Yes there are some supply and demand effects as well. So why care?

As a mortgage banker it certainly is an encouraging sign on the likely long term path of lower interest rates. It also serves as economic encouragement for borrowers to take debt over longer periods of time. If it costs the same to borrow for thirty years versus two years, why not borrow for thirty? And given the equity that has built up over the last several years in real estate, most homeowners have a very effective method to borrow debt versus other forms, especially considering the tax advantage of a home mortgage.

The 10yr is currently at 2.32% versus the average for all of 2017 at 2.32%. The entire range for 2017 has been very tight with it trading between 2.04% and 2.62%. 2018 however could be a very different year with a new Fed Chair (yes Janet Yellen is being replaced by President Trump). We will also see how inflation plays out now that the FOMC has raised twice in 2017 and possibly a third time will come in December. The current odds of a December hike are 92% and a 50% chance of two hikes in 2018. I’m going to call 2018 as a make or break year for the Federal Reserve. They are raising rates, so let’s sit back and see how this plays out. Not to mention a flattening yield curve. If it goes negative (2yr yield is higher than the 10yr yield) then hang onto your hat.

 

image: http://www.newamericanagent.com/uploads/images/Jason_11.16.17.png

2 yr - 10 yr spread

 



Market Update - Time to Push Debt Out

By tina.nikkhah@nafinc.com November 16, 2017

Without a doubt debt has been very cheap for the past several years. Not to mention record low interest rates and fiscal stimulus have pushed up asset prices following the financial crisis. The stock market has pushed higher and higher as have real estate prices. But so has the debt load of the US Government, the US homeowner as well as college students around the nation. In fact the total US Household Debt has reached $13 trillion, $280 billion higher than in 2008 as the financial crisis unfolded.  We’ve been told that the loans made today are of much higher quality than loans made before the financial crisis. That’s certainly true with mortgages but what about other types of debt? Subprime auto is experiencing heavy losses nearing pre-crisis levels, student loan debt has reached $1.4 trillion with a 11.2% 90-day delinquency rate and credit card balances continued to riseMortgages have become the safe form of debt but other forms are becoming very risky. What’s the solution?

As it stands today tax reform likely won’t be passed in its current form. Certainly any type of stimulation to the economy could cure the current debt problems (and potential crisis for students). If nothing is done it’s going to be very difficult to continue to borrow our way into prosperity. And that’s where rates come into play…

If you’ve been watching the market you’ve seen short term rates via the Federal Reserve continue to rise while long term rates have remained relatively flat. See the chart below that represents the spread between the 2yr and 10yr Treasuries. As you can see over the last 8+ years the spread has nearly collapsed, meaning it’s becoming cheaper to borrow over the long term relative to the short term. This is often referred to as a flattening of the yield curve. It’s generally a result of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and a low growth and inflation outlook for the longer term. Yes there are some supply and demand effects as well. So why care?

As a mortgage banker it certainly is an encouraging sign on the likely long term path of lower interest rates. It also serves as economic encouragement for borrowers to take debt over longer periods of time. If it costs the same to borrow for thirty years versus two years, why not borrow for thirty? And given the equity that has built up over the last several years in real estate, most homeowners have a very effective method to borrow debt versus other forms, especially considering the tax advantage of a home mortgage.

The 10yr is currently at 2.32% versus the average for all of 2017 at 2.32%. The entire range for 2017 has been very tight with it trading between 2.04% and 2.62%. 2018 however could be a very different year with a new Fed Chair (yes Janet Yellen is being replaced by President Trump). We will also see how inflation plays out now that the FOMC has raised twice in 2017 and possibly a third time will come in December. The current odds of a December hike are 92% and a 50% chance of two hikes in 2018. I’m going to call 2018 as a make or break year for the Federal Reserve. They are raising rates, so let’s sit back and see how this plays out. Not to mention a flattening yield curve. If it goes negative (2yr yield is higher than the 10yr yield) then hang onto your hat.

 

image: http://www.newamericanagent.com/uploads/images/Jason_11.16.17.png

2 yr - 10 yr spread